Good portfolios from bad forecasts: The anatomy of LLM volatility estimates
PublishedFinance Research Letters, 109, 110572.
Anjana Yatawara · CSU Bakersfield
Assistant Professor of Statistics at California State University, Bakersfield, and founding faculty lead of the CSUB Hub for Statistics, Applied AI, and Data Science Innovation. The record below covers appointment and education, academic leadership, teaching, student mentoring, funded projects, publications, presentations, and service. Last updated September 2026.
Anjana Yatawara is Assistant Professor of Statistics at California State University, Bakersfield. He completed his Ph.D. in mathematics, statistics emphasis, at Missouri University of Science and Technology in 2023, on time series with conditional heteroscedastic structure. His research spans time series and financial econometrics, statistics for artificial intelligence, AI in mathematics and statistics education, and environmental statistics. At CSUB he founded and leads the Hub for Statistics, Applied AI, and Data Science Innovation, coordinates the department’s introductory statistics courses, and mentors undergraduate researchers who have been first and co-first authors on peer-reviewed papers in environmental statistics and environmental health.
Research areas
Statistical methodology for dependent and dynamic data: volatility modeling, count-valued time series, and high-frequency and multi-frequency processes, with applications in finance, economics, and the sciences.
Methods for evaluating the reliability and uncertainty of AI systems, with emphasis on large language models, prediction, inference, and decision-making.
Empirical and methodological research on the responsible integration of generative AI into education, with emphasis on mathematical and statistical reasoning, learning outcomes, assessment, and AI-supported tutoring.
Statistical modeling of air quality, pollutant exposure, environmental inequality, spatiotemporal processes, sensor and monitoring networks, and heterogeneous environmental data.
Across these areas he works with students through the full research process, from data analysis and statistical computing to scientific writing and publication, and collaborates with researchers in other disciplines on methodological and applied problems. Full treatment of the research lives on the research page.
2023–present
Assistant Professor of Statistics
California State University, Bakersfield · Bakersfield, CA
2023
Ph.D., Mathematics (Statistics Emphasis)
Missouri University of Science and Technology · Rolla, Missouri
Research emphasis: modeling time series with conditional heteroscedastic structure. Advisor: Dr. V. A. Samaranayake.
2017
B.Sc. Special Degree, Statistics
University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
Second Class Honors (Upper Division).
Program-building at CSUB: an interdisciplinary Hub and its colloquium series, coordination of the department’s introductory statistics courses, new and proposed curriculum in statistical data science, and the research computing behind them.
2025–present
Founder & Faculty Lead, CSUB Hub for Statistics, Applied AI & Data Science Innovation
2025–present
Founder & Organizer, Statistics, Applied AI & Data Science Colloquium Series
2026–present
Statistics Coordinator, Department of Mathematics
2025–2026
Co-Developer & Instructor, MATH 4230: Applied Statistical Methods for Data Science
2025
MATH 3218: The Science of Data, Statistics, and Artificial Intelligence
Participated in faculty review and refinement of the new upper-division GE course led by Dr. Eduardo Montoya, and served as the named proposer responsible for entering and advancing the proposal through CourseLeaf.
2025–present
Statistical Data Science concentration and proposed B.S. in Statistical Data Science
Initial proposal
Proposed general education course — Inside AI: The Mathematics of Large Language Models
2026–present
Founder & Organizer, CSUB AI & Data Science Research Group
Established a cross-departmental faculty research group connecting statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, institutional research, and related areas; organizes research meetings and supports collaborative projects, student involvement, and grant opportunities.
2025–present
Research computing and AI infrastructure development
2025–present
AI and data science workshops and training
Instructor of record at California State University, Bakersfield in every term since Fall 2023, across courses spanning general-education statistics, probability and mathematical statistics, statistical computing, regression, and upper-division data science. Previously taught engineering statistics and engineering calculus at Missouri University of Science and Technology (2017–2023).
Instructor of record · 2023–present
| Course | Title | Level | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH 2200 | Introduction to Statistical Concepts and Methods | Lower-division, GE service | F23–F26, every term |
| MATH 3200 | Probability Theory | Upper-division core | S24, F25, S26, F26 |
| MATH 3210 | Applied Statistical Computing | Upper-division; graduate cross-list (MATH 5210) | F23, F24 |
| MATH 4200 | Mathematical Statistics | Upper-division core | S25 |
| MATH 4210 | Regression Modeling and Analysis | Upper-division elective | F26 |
| MATH 4230 | Applied Statistical Methods for Data Science | Upper-division elective; co-developed by instructor | S26 |
Graduate teaching assistant and instructor · 2017–2023
STAT 3113
Applied Engineering Statistics
Multiple lecture sections in a typical term; full responsibility for lectures, assessment, and grading.
MATH 1215
Calculus for Engineers II
Lecture sections; full responsibility for lectures, assessment, and grading.
MATH 1214
Calculus for Engineers I
Shared instructional responsibility.
Instructor and tutor
Instructor
CS 100 Computer Applications · ST 103 Statistics Applications I
Tutor
ST 301 Regression Analysis · ST 305 Multivariate Methods I · ST 403 Statistics for Bioinformatics
More on the teaching page.
Undergraduate research at CSUB runs through scholar programs, sustained individual supervision, and the graduate-pathway work that follows it. Several of these students are first, co-first, or contributing authors on peer-reviewed papers in environmental statistics and environmental health.
2024, 2025
Faculty Research Mentor, CV Pathway — Summer Research Apprenticeship for Doctoral Programs
Summer 2025
Faculty Research Mentor, Chevron Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SURE)
A Customizable AI Pipeline for Academic Excellence: Locally Hosted Language Models in Higher Education.
Mentored undergraduate researchers in the development and evaluation of locally hosted large language models for higher education, including retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), model fine-tuning, quantization, GPU-based deployment, and comparison with commercial cloud-based AI systems.
2025–2026
Principal Investigator & Undergraduate Research Mentor, CES Mini-Grant
Air Pollution Disparities in California, 2000–2025: Examining Environmental Inequities Across Income, Poverty, and Minority Populations.
2024–2026
Tom Regpala
Environmental statistics, air-pollution exposure inequality, statistical computing, and environmental data integration. Began through CV Path 2024 and continued as a sustained research collaboration. Student co-first author on peer-reviewed work published in Atmospheric Environment: X; continued mentoring included research writing and doctoral-study preparation.
2025–2026
Eric Palafox
Environmental statistics and computational data analysis. Supervised large-scale monitor–satellite air-quality analysis, R programming, statistical methodology, and reproducible workflows. Student co-first author on peer-reviewed work published in Atmospheric Environment: X.
2025–2026
Kayla Ko
Environmental inequality and statistical data science. Supervised research on income-based pollution-exposure disparities across California counties. Student first author on peer-reviewed work published in Environmental Research: Health.
2025–2026
Christian Rodriguez
Environmental data science and applied AI; supported through Chevron SURE and ELEVATE. Student coauthor on peer-reviewed work published in Environmental Research: Health and co-presenter of undergraduate research on open-source and local large language models.
2025–2026
Noah Gallego
Machine learning, time-series forecasting, and computational data science; CV Path 2025 Research Scholar. Supervised hybrid GRU-CNN influenza forecasting, computational implementation, statistical evaluation, and manuscript development.
2025–2026
Emily DeJesus
Environmental data science; CV Path 2025 Research Scholar. Supervised literature review, environmental and demographic data analysis, interpretation, research writing, and poster preparation; continued graduate-school and research-pathway mentoring.
2024–2026
Juan Rodriguez Aguilar
Applied AI, forecasting, and open-source and local large language models. Supervised research development, computational experimentation, poster preparation, and communication of findings. Co-presented undergraduate research through the CSUB Mathematics Seminar.
Fall 2026–present
Chase Davis & Brian Martinez
Undergraduate mathematics research in cryptography and LLM text watermarking; currently in the initial research-development stage.
February 2026
CSU Channel Islands Plot-A-Thon
November 2025
CSUB Mathematics Seminar — Undergraduate AI Research
Mentored Tom Regpala, Juan Rodriguez Aguilar, and Christian Rodriguez in presenting undergraduate AI and data-science research; Aguilar and Rodriguez presented CSUB-GPT: Open-Source Local LLMs for Campus Use (November 19, 2025).
2025
Joint Statistical Meetings
Undergraduate research with Noah Gallego contributed to presented work on hybrid deep-learning methods for forecasting influenza-like illnesses.
2024–2025
CV Path Research Symposia
Supervised preparation of undergraduate research reports, posters, and presentations associated with the CV Path research program.
2025–2026
CSU Chancellor’s Doctoral Incentive Program (CDIP)
Faculty mentor and recommender for Tom Regpala’s 2026–27 CDIP doctoral-pathway application.
2025
Cal-Bridge graduate pathway mentoring
Supported Emily DeJesus in pursuing Cal-Bridge and communicated with program faculty regarding her research preparation and graduate-school pathway.
Ongoing
Graduate school and career mentoring
Mentors undergraduate researchers in graduate and Ph.D. applications, research CVs, statements of purpose, fellowships, internships, employment applications, and letters of recommendation.
2026–present
Local, Task-Specific Language Model for Automated Essay Grading
Collaboration with Dr. Jonathan P. Brown, Professor of Mathematics, Bakersfield College · Bakersfield, CA.
Funded work spans AI in education, environmental statistics, and research computing, with support from the California Education Learning Lab, CSUB Environmental Studies, the CSUB Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation, Amazon Web Services, and Chevron.
2025–2026
California Education Learning Lab — AI FAST Challenge
Co-Principal Investigator · ELEVATE: Enhancing Learning Experiences Via AI Techniques · $150,000.
Interdisciplinary project integrating generative AI and structured AI tutoring into mathematics, statistics, and other university courses; included student research, faculty development, and evaluation of AI-supported learning.
2025–2026
CSUB Environmental Studies — CES Mini-Grant
Principal Investigator · Air Pollution Disparities in California, 2000–2025: Examining Environmental Inequities Across Income, Poverty, and Minority Populations.
Funded environmental statistics project supporting undergraduate research, large-scale air-quality and demographic data analysis, and peer-reviewed scholarship.
2026–2027
CSUB Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation — Faculty R&D Fellowship
Faculty R&D Fellow / Project Lead · KernelStats: AI-Powered Statistical Analysis Platform · $7,000.
Competitive R&D fellowship supporting development, intellectual-property planning, and commercialization of an AI-powered statistical analysis platform, currently in private development.
2026
Amazon Web Services — Cloud & AI Research Credit Award
Faculty Collaborator / Project Team Member · $200,000 in AWS cloud credits awarded to the collaborative CSUB project.
Contributed statistical evaluation and benchmarking expertise, curricular-integration planning, and student-research applications.
Summer 2025
Chevron Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SURE)
Faculty Research Mentor · A Customizable AI Pipeline for Academic Excellence: Locally Hosted Language Models in Higher Education · $7,000 faculty mentor award.
Supervised undergraduate research on locally hosted large language models, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), model fine-tuning, quantization, GPU-based deployment, and development of institution-specific AI applications.
2026
U.S. Department of Education — Title III Strengthening Institutions Program (SIP)
CATALYST: Cultivating Adaptive Teaching And Learning with AI-Supported Technologies · AI Learning Companion Tool Developer (0.33 FTE); Key Personnel.
Revised institutional proposal submitted June 2026; decision pending. Responsible for developing and maintaining the Adaptive AI Learning Companion, a scaffolded AI tutoring system for STEM gateway courses, building on prior mathematics and statistics AI-tutoring research and the ELEVATE project.
2026
U.S. Department of Education — Supporting Effective Educator Development (SEED)
Proposal Team Contributor · Cruz, A. C. (PI), Yatawara, A., et al. · FY 2026 SEED Competition, Assistance Listing 84.423A.
Contributed quantitative research design, assessment, mathematics and statistics learning materials, analysis of implementation and participant outcomes, and proposal and budget development.
2026
National Science Foundation — Mathematical Foundations of Artificial Intelligence (MFAI), NSF 24-569
Co-Principal Investigator · PI: Jeremy Woods · planned submission October 2026.
Cross-CSU interdisciplinary proposal investigating mathematical and statistical foundations of artificial intelligence, including reliability, robustness, uncertainty, interpretability, computational efficiency, and responsible AI.
2026
California State University — Learning Innovation for Future-Forward Teaching (LIFT), Tier 2
Principal Investigator · A CSUB Interactive Learning Platform for MATH 2200 · $20,000 requested.
Proposed an integrated, open, and interactive statistics-learning environment combining a digital coursebook, computational tools, assessments, browser-based statistical computing, and a course-material-grounded ChatGPT tutor drawing on the instructor’s own MATH 2200 materials. Not selected for funding.
2026
CSUB SPARKS — Students Partnering with AI for Regional Knowledge and Service
Principal Investigator / Faculty Applicant · MATH 3209: Statistical Measures of Inequality in Society.
Proposed an AI-integrated, project-based redesign of the upper-division GE course. Not funded because MATH 3209 was not scheduled for Fall 2026, a program eligibility requirement.
2025
NSME Seed Research & Writing Grant
Principal Investigator · Enhancing Volatility Modeling: High-Frequency Data Analysis and Theoretical Development of FIGJRGARCH Models.
Proposed theoretical and empirical development of new volatility models using high-frequency financial data. Not selected for funding.
2025
U.S. Department of Education — FIPSE Special Projects Program
Co-Principal Investigator · CATALYST: Cultivating Adaptive Teaching And Learning with AI-Supported Technologies.
Institutional proposal to expand responsible AI-supported teaching and learning across STEM disciplines. Led development of the mathematics and statistics and scaffolded AI-tutoring components, including the SMARTS framework and course-integrated AI learning companion. Submitted December 2025; not funded.
Finance Research Letters, 109, 110572.
Journal of Forecasting.
Atmospheric Environment: X, 31, 100492.
Environmental Research: Health, 4(1), 011002.
ACS ES&T Air, 3(4), 1057–1068.
ASEE Computers in Education Journal, 2026 FIE Special Issue. Accepted June 23, 2026.
Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE Frontiers in Education Conference (FIE), 1–5.
2025 Artificial Intelligence x Humanities, Education, and Art (AIxHEART), 13–16.
Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings, Business and Economic Statistics Section.
Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings, Business and Economic Statistics Section.
Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education.
Computers & Education: Artificial Intelligence.
The Journal of Finance and Data Science.
Journal of Econometrics.
Journal of Financial Econometrics.
Quantitative Finance.
Journal of Time Series Analysis.
Econometric Theory.
International Review of Economics & Finance.
Spatial Statistics.
Ph.D. dissertation, Missouri University of Science and Technology.
The same record is on the publications page.
2026
From Answer Generators to Thinking Partners: Scaffolded LLM Tutors in Statistics Education
Yatawara, A., Wang, J., Cruz, A. C., & Mishra, M.
Joint Statistical Meetings, Boston, MA, August 6, 2026. Session: AI in the Classroom: Research and Exploration. Presenter: Anjana Yatawara.
2026
Prompt-Engineered Cognitive Apprenticeship for In-Service K–9 Teacher Learning
Cruz, A. C., Yatawara, A., Mishra, M., & Wang, J. J.
Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (AERA), Los Angeles, CA. Roundtable presentation.
2025
Scaffolded Socratic Tutoring with a Retrieval-Augmented Mistral LLM for Psychology Laboratory Courses
LeBlanc-Grappendorf, S., Conlon, J., Johnson, M., Yatawara, A., Wang, J. J., Cruz, A. C., & Mishra, M.
IEEE International Conference on Artificial Intelligence x Humanities, Education, and Art (AIxHEART), Laguna Hills, CA.
2025
Computer-Aided Instruction for K–12 Teachers
Cruz, A. C., Yatawara, A., Mishra, M., & Wang, J. J.
IEEE International Conference on Artificial Intelligence x Humanities, Education, and Art (AIxHEART), Laguna Hills, CA.
2025
Work-in-Progress: Structured AI Tutoring in Engineering Education
Cruz, A. C., Yatawara, A., Mishra, M., & Wang, J. J.
ASEE/IEEE Frontiers in Education Conference, Nashville, TN.
2025
Hybrid LSTM Deep Learning Model for Forecasting Influenza-Like Illnesses
Contributed paper presentation, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Section, Joint Statistical Meetings, Nashville, TN.
2022
The Multiplicative Factor Multi-Frequency Exponential GARCH ((MF)²-EGARCH)
Yatawara, A., & Samaranayake, V. A.
Contributed paper presentation, Business and Economic Statistics Section, Joint Statistical Meetings, Washington, DC.
2021
The Asymmetric Hyperbolic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (A-HYGARCH) Model
Yatawara, A., & Samaranayake, V. A.
Contributed speed presentation, Time Series and Finance Session, Joint Statistical Meetings, virtual conference.
Artificial intelligence and statistics education
June 2025
ELEVATE: Enhancing Learning Experiences Via AI Techniques — Findings from CSUB
Invited presentation and panel, AI in Education Day, National Workshop on Data Science Education, University of California, Berkeley, June 24, 2025.
October 2025
Build Your AI Teaching Assistant
Session lead, NextTech Kern, California State University, Bakersfield, October 2, 2025.
October 2025
AI in Business
Session lead, NextTech Kern, California State University, Bakersfield, October 2, 2025. In collaboration with Keelan Schule, Solutions Engineer, OpenAI.
April 2025
Teaching With AI: Helping Students Learn Statistics With Custom GPTs and Prompts
Mathematics Seminar, California State University, Bakersfield, April 2, 2025.
April 2025
Hands-On AI Workshop: Custom GPTs and Effective Prompt Engineering for Educators
Invited talk, NSME Teacher-Scholar Lecture Series, California State University, Bakersfield, April 11, 2025.
October 2025
AI Workshop for First-Year Seminar Students and Course Coordinators
Faculty training workshop, California State University, Bakersfield, October 13, 2025.
November 2025
AI as a Thinking Partner in Statistics: Results from Spring and Fall 2025
Mathematics Seminar, California State University, Bakersfield, November 5, 2025.
March 2025
Effective Ways to Introduce AI in Your Classroom at CSUB
NSME Teacher-Scholar Lecture Series, California State University, Bakersfield, March 6, 2025. With Alberto Cruz and Maruti Mishra.
August 2025
Teaching and Learning in the AI Era
NSME Teacher-Scholar Summer Workshop, California State University, Bakersfield, August 19, 2025. With Alberto Cruz.
November 2025
Accelerate Your Intelligence
Panelist, California State University, Bakersfield, November 20, 2025.
2026–present
Member, ADSA AI Tutoring Study Working Group, Alliance for Data Science and AI
Multi-institution working group examining AI tutoring and AI-supported learning in statistics and data science education.
2026–2027
Mentor, ASA Section on Statistics and Data Science Education (SSDSE) Mentoring Program
American Statistical Association.
2026
Program Committee Member and Reviewer, AIxHEART 2026
Artificial Intelligence × Humanities, Education, and Art.
2026
Reviewer, IEEE International Conference on Tools with Artificial Intelligence (ICTAI)
2026–2027
Academic Affairs Committee (AAC), Academic Senate
Appointed member of the university standing committee concerned with academic policy, programs, curricula, and related academic matters.
2026–2027
General Education Curriculum Committee (GECCo)
Elected by acclamation as a Mathematics/NSME representative to complete an existing term, May 2026–May 2027.
2026–present
Founding Faculty Advisor, CSUB Data Science & Applied AI Society
Recruited founding student officers and guided development and registration of the new student organization.
2024–2025
Mathematics Department Website Subcommittee
Member; coordinated collection of faculty and staff information and distributed the departmental faculty and staff webpage survey.
March 2026
Co-Organizer, Data Science Exploration Challenge, Lee Webb Math Field Day
Developed a new high-school data science competition, including the dataset, data dictionary, participant materials, judging framework, school communication, and event implementation.
2025, 2026
Volunteer, Kern County Chapter MATHCOUNTS Competition
Supported competition operations and student activities, including scoring support.
March 2026
Volunteer, Future ’Runner Day / Meet Your Major
Represented Mathematics in prospective-student and family outreach.
October 2025
Volunteer, NSME Open House
Represented the Mathematics Department to prospective students and families.
March 2025
Faculty Volunteer, Math Club Runner Night
More detail on leadership and service is on the leadership & service page.
The same record, formatted for print. Last updated September 2026.